Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

The Title of this BLOG has been attributed to Mark Twain or Benjamin Disraeli.

Effectively what this means is that there can be no lies. It also means that there can be no truth. Lies and truth are now flexible concepts depending on what someone chooses to use as the starting and finishing point. Those points are determined by what one wants to achieve.

Let's look at the renovations to the Windsor/Detroit Tunnel as an example. Councillor Gignac claimed the Tunnel came in at $18M, $2m under budget.

• "This is a great achievement."

It is if you forget:

• "The two-year upgrade and restoration of the University Avenue tunnel ventilation building wrapped up" on May 30, 2007 when it was supposed to be finished by October, 2006
• The "commission awarded a $12,370,720 tender to Windsor's Vollmer and Associates for upgrades to the tunnel's ventilation system [$2.5 million below previous estimates]" in April, 2004.
• The Star reported in June, 2005 that the "$13-million renovation project at the Windsor-Detroit tunnel is six months behind schedule and facing major cost overruns because of structural problems, says a report to the Windsor tunnel commission."

Now we are told in a huge Star advertising section that the bus terminal was opened on time and under budget. Well that is true depending on the start and finish dates. If one looks at the time the project was officially approved by Council, September, 2006 at a budget of $7.5M, this project has been a remarkable success.

If you accept that it was to have been built for Super Bowl at a cost of around $6M, it is a horrible failure.

If you accept that the cost of the land should be deducted from the cost, then it is considerably over-budget if you do the math, never mind taking into account the changes made.

If you accept that Greyhound has effectively been given a 50% equity stake in the building for paying the costs a tenant would normally pay, then who did this deal!

Here is a timeline on the bus terminal to show you what I mean. You choose the start date and the finish date. Pick the numbers you want to use and come up with whatever answer you want to prove whatever it is you want to prove.

• 12-13-2002 It's estimated the terminal, to be shared by Transit Windsor and Greyhound Canada, will cost $6 million...We need about 65,000 square feet
• 03-18-2003 The 8,000-square-foot, 12-bay building would cost about $4 million, with one-third of that total paid by the provincial government, leaving the city on the hook for $2.67 million, providing Transit Windsor and Greyhound Canada continue their partnership.
• 02-24-2004 The proposed 64,000-square-foot terminal is expected to cost between $4 million and $6 million with the province providing up to $2 million in matching funds.
• 10-16-2004 A empty lot which used to house the downtown Canadian Tire store is being recommended by a site selection committee as the location for a $6.125-million transit terminal which will be shared by Transit Windsor and Greyhound Canada.
• 02-09-2005 The 11,800-square-foot building, which will be triple the size of the existing 63-year-old terminal, will be on the site of the former Canadian Tire store, adjacent to the Art Gallery of Windsor and the Radisson Hotel.
• 05-19-2005 Construction had been slated to begin in June with a projected opening date in January. But talks with Greyhound have proceeded more slowly than anticipated, Iatonna said. At issue is the size of the $6.2-million building.
  
  Iatonna said the city would like to bring the cost of the building in under $6 million but Greyhound wants to ensure the new terminal can accommodate everything it requires to serve customers, including ticket wickets and counter space, bus bays and offices.
  
  The proposed one-storey, 11,800-square-foot building, adjacent to the Art Gallery of Windsor, is also expected to include a waiting area, a parcel pickup centre, information kiosk, drivers' room and dispatch facilities.
• 06-13-2005 Originally scheduled to be completed in time for Super Bowl XL next February, the $6.125 million terminal on the site of the old Canadian Tire store is now expected to be completed next spring.
  
  Greyhound's financial contribution to the project is expected to be limited to annual lease payments which will offset some of the capital and operating costs.
• 10-14-2005 Negotiations with Greyhound Canada for a $6-million downtown bus terminal have hit a snag and placed a deal with the city in limbo.
  
  Negotiations were stalled when Greyhound balked at contributing $2 million to the project without having an equity share in the terminal.
• 03-31-2006 A $6-million deal for a new transit terminal that could open by spring next year has been reached between the City of Windsor and Greyhound Canada.
  
  Greyhound will be using four bus bays, but will not rent any space inside the 8,000-square-foot building, which is a scaled-down version of what was originally planned for the site...
  
  Greyhound Canada will be given 50 per cent ownership of the new transit terminal in 25 years. "We'll be 50-50 partners," Francis said...
  
  Francis said the deal is a good one for taxpayers because the cost of operating the building is essentially covered by the $160,000 annual payments Greyhound will make.
  
  "Instead of them giving up-front cash, this is what they're giving, which still allows us to pay off the operating" expenses, Francis said.
• 05-13-2006 'Funky' transit depot...The 9,000-square-foot terminal -- pegged at about $6 million -- will have a domed roof with a skylight, glass and brick facade and indoor palm trees...
  
  We're still in the working phase," she said. "The site is quite congested. We're trying to maximize use of the site..."
  
  Isabelle-Tunks said the terminal will have a large indoor concourse and the ability to accommodate 12 Transit Windsor and four Greyhound buses.
• 09-19-2006 A new Transit Windsor bus terminal that will cost $1.5 million more than anticipated was approved Monday by city council.
  
  The building that will sit at Chatham Street West and Church Street, came in at a price of $7.5 million, well above the $6 million that was originally budgeted...
  
  The building plans grew from 8,000 square feet to about 9,200 square feet.
• 05-26-2007 Stewart said he's looking forward to the grand opening of the bright new $7.2-million bus terminal
• 06-23-2007 The $7.2 million City Centre Transit Terminal received rave reviews Friday when it was opened for the first time to Transit Windsor staff and municipal officials.
• Advertisement August 17, 2007 Transit Terminal opens on time, under budget
  For Isabelle- Tunks, the project has been a success because “it was completed on-time and under budget, and it meets the needs of the users.” Despite three labour strikes, there was a negligible impact on the schedule.
  
  The final cost is about $7.4 million –- $100,000 under budget. “We did this by reviewing finishes and design features, selecting the most cost-effective [ones],” says IsabelleTunks.
  
  Construction, carried out by Gulf Construction, began in October 2006 and was completed in mid June bringing the project within the tight 10-month timeline.

So you see how it works. It is NOT a lie; it is just damned statistics! Can you imagine the praise when the East end arena comes in on-time and under budget too!