Handicapping The Council Horserace
It's almost a week now before nominations close for the election of the Mayor and Council. You'd never know it since it has been so quiet, even in the media. You would almost think that the incumbents agreed, in another in camera meeting, not to do anything to stir up the pot so that taxpayers would forget there is an election this year. In this way, they could all come back for four more years.
Sure there are lots of people running but who knows it. The Star claims that "Several people have been approached by businessmen in the community to run against Francis." Without a mayoral race, the incumbents on Council have a strong advantage. It will be difficult to unseat them since, frankly, who cares what prospective councillors think the issues are. Even the Labour Council told candidates to butt out of their meeting and say nothing (while letting the incumbents say what they propose to do if elected!)
The races in several of the Wards will be hot and heavy. If voter turnout is low, in some cases, anyone could win. Let me give you my best guess about is going on in in the Wards where we actually have a contest now.
WARD ONE
Will it be a race between the former Mr. STOPDRTP and the new Mr. TUNNEL as the top vote-getter for the two spots in the Ward? Or will people remember Drew Dilkens from the last time around when he came in third? What about newcomer Greg Baggio who is working like crazy now or former Clerk Tom Lynd who has the background and experience to be a Councillor?
With Councillor Zuk not running, is the Ward that is notorious for tossing out Councillors going to do it again?
Most would say that Councillor Budget is an automatic winner with his huge vote last time. But his lack of action on the border has offended his community base and he is almost "knee jerk" when money items come up on the agenda. While Al Teshuba is getting some publiciity for name recognition, the whole Tunnel thing is a yawn as a senior Councillor admitted to a friend of mine privately the other week. Al's pushing for a DRTP tunnel will hurt him as well. Anything DRTP is too scary in the STOPDRTP corridor!
My view--any two of the five main candidates could win with the only sure bet being Drew Dilkens
WARD TWO
Will Chris Schnurr be able to knock off one of the "joined at the hip" Councillors? Councillors Jones and Postma are portraying themselves as a team working hard for the good of the Ward.
However, there is a big undercurrent of discontent in the Ward that Schnurr may be able to capitalize on. There is a real split developing between Sandwich residents and the rest of the Ward. The two Councillors are being viewed as ignoring anything in the Ward other than the favoured Sandwich.
The Councillors were unable to prevent the arena going to the East End and have done little on the border. The urban village-----Councillor Jones still claims that developers are just waiting for an RFP before the West End is transformed. They have been sitting in the wings for a long time now.
Schnurr's vision for Ward 2 is very different than theirs with a different political philosophy. He is much more of a "red" Tory; progressive on social issues, conservative on business matters, investment and jobs. That approach may find support in a Ward that has a low voter turnout. Will Schnurr's secret campaign strategy surprise the incumbents as well? Now that should be fun to watch for.
Jones should have strong union support and is popular personally. The race should be for the Number 2 spot if Jones' cannot bring Postma along with him.
WARD THREE
I just do not see the incumbents losing, especially after the last vote is analyzed.
I expect that Councillor Valentinis will work harder this time around since Councillor Halberstadt beat him in the last election and he may have mayoral thoughts for the next one. Alan always works as if his life depends on him being Councillor. And his supporters want him as mayor. Whoever wins the top spot could be the one to beat next time around for the City's highest position.
I do not see Tony Blak making any in-roads here. He is quite bright and articulate and seems to know the issues from my conversation with him. Rumours are out there still that he may run for Mayor. In my view, he has a better chance to be Mayor, even as a relative unknown politically, than to become a Councillor in the Ward. We do need an experienced business person on Council. Imagine, a bakey owner competing against a former bakery owner. Both will knead a lot of dough if there is going to be a race!
WARD FOUR
The Vegas line is that David Cassivi is a shoo-in and that we are awaiting the coronation of Bill Marra as the next Mayor in 4 years after he comes back as Councillor now. But the bookies are wrong! The big unknown factor will be the Mayor in this Ward. If Eddie is acclaimed, the E-machine will do everything in its power to ensure that Marra and Cassivi are not returned to Council.
This Ward will have the toughest fight. It will be expected that both the NDP and CAW will provide workers for Councillor Lewenza. He must win if he is to take over MP Joe Comartin's seat if the rumours are true about him not running again. But now voters know now that Junior is not his dad and his perfomance on Council has been very uneven. His support for anything the Mayor wants may well provoke a backlash against him.
My view is that Bill Marra would have had an easier fight running for Mayor than he will running for Council. He can be expected to have his Liberal friends bring out workers to assist him but they helped cost him the mayoral election the last time around too with some bad tactical advice. Will Bill not running for Mayor hurt his chances with voters? Lewenza used some strong language against him since it took Bill so long to decide where he would run which could mean a negative campaign.
Sure there are lots of people running but who knows it. The Star claims that "Several people have been approached by businessmen in the community to run against Francis." Without a mayoral race, the incumbents on Council have a strong advantage. It will be difficult to unseat them since, frankly, who cares what prospective councillors think the issues are. Even the Labour Council told candidates to butt out of their meeting and say nothing (while letting the incumbents say what they propose to do if elected!)
The races in several of the Wards will be hot and heavy. If voter turnout is low, in some cases, anyone could win. Let me give you my best guess about is going on in in the Wards where we actually have a contest now.
WARD ONE
Will it be a race between the former Mr. STOPDRTP and the new Mr. TUNNEL as the top vote-getter for the two spots in the Ward? Or will people remember Drew Dilkens from the last time around when he came in third? What about newcomer Greg Baggio who is working like crazy now or former Clerk Tom Lynd who has the background and experience to be a Councillor?
With Councillor Zuk not running, is the Ward that is notorious for tossing out Councillors going to do it again?
Most would say that Councillor Budget is an automatic winner with his huge vote last time. But his lack of action on the border has offended his community base and he is almost "knee jerk" when money items come up on the agenda. While Al Teshuba is getting some publiciity for name recognition, the whole Tunnel thing is a yawn as a senior Councillor admitted to a friend of mine privately the other week. Al's pushing for a DRTP tunnel will hurt him as well. Anything DRTP is too scary in the STOPDRTP corridor!
My view--any two of the five main candidates could win with the only sure bet being Drew Dilkens
WARD TWO
Will Chris Schnurr be able to knock off one of the "joined at the hip" Councillors? Councillors Jones and Postma are portraying themselves as a team working hard for the good of the Ward.
However, there is a big undercurrent of discontent in the Ward that Schnurr may be able to capitalize on. There is a real split developing between Sandwich residents and the rest of the Ward. The two Councillors are being viewed as ignoring anything in the Ward other than the favoured Sandwich.
The Councillors were unable to prevent the arena going to the East End and have done little on the border. The urban village-----Councillor Jones still claims that developers are just waiting for an RFP before the West End is transformed. They have been sitting in the wings for a long time now.
Schnurr's vision for Ward 2 is very different than theirs with a different political philosophy. He is much more of a "red" Tory; progressive on social issues, conservative on business matters, investment and jobs. That approach may find support in a Ward that has a low voter turnout. Will Schnurr's secret campaign strategy surprise the incumbents as well? Now that should be fun to watch for.
Jones should have strong union support and is popular personally. The race should be for the Number 2 spot if Jones' cannot bring Postma along with him.
WARD THREE
I just do not see the incumbents losing, especially after the last vote is analyzed.
I expect that Councillor Valentinis will work harder this time around since Councillor Halberstadt beat him in the last election and he may have mayoral thoughts for the next one. Alan always works as if his life depends on him being Councillor. And his supporters want him as mayor. Whoever wins the top spot could be the one to beat next time around for the City's highest position.
I do not see Tony Blak making any in-roads here. He is quite bright and articulate and seems to know the issues from my conversation with him. Rumours are out there still that he may run for Mayor. In my view, he has a better chance to be Mayor, even as a relative unknown politically, than to become a Councillor in the Ward. We do need an experienced business person on Council. Imagine, a bakey owner competing against a former bakery owner. Both will knead a lot of dough if there is going to be a race!
WARD FOUR
The Vegas line is that David Cassivi is a shoo-in and that we are awaiting the coronation of Bill Marra as the next Mayor in 4 years after he comes back as Councillor now. But the bookies are wrong! The big unknown factor will be the Mayor in this Ward. If Eddie is acclaimed, the E-machine will do everything in its power to ensure that Marra and Cassivi are not returned to Council.
This Ward will have the toughest fight. It will be expected that both the NDP and CAW will provide workers for Councillor Lewenza. He must win if he is to take over MP Joe Comartin's seat if the rumours are true about him not running again. But now voters know now that Junior is not his dad and his perfomance on Council has been very uneven. His support for anything the Mayor wants may well provoke a backlash against him.
My view is that Bill Marra would have had an easier fight running for Mayor than he will running for Council. He can be expected to have his Liberal friends bring out workers to assist him but they helped cost him the mayoral election the last time around too with some bad tactical advice. Will Bill not running for Mayor hurt his chances with voters? Lewenza used some strong language against him since it took Bill so long to decide where he would run which could mean a negative campaign.
Bill is viewed as probably the most attractive candidate in the City but will the Mayor allow him to be the Leader of the Opposition for 4 years? We all know that Eddie folds under attack. He is the attackor and wilts as the Teflon attackee quickly. Watch for vicious attacks on Bill as the campaign progresses.
Will David Cassivi fall finally as the two main political parties help their favoured son win? David certainly does not have the resources to match their people-power. He was hurt personally by the unfair and vicious Windsor Star "trash" attack but more by the Mayor's lack of support when David took the hit for doing Eddie's work. That to me was the sign that Eddie did not want him back although David is always "loyal" to the incumbent Mayor. The uncalled-for and unprovoked attack on David, which someone hoped would hurt him, will work to his advantage by gaining him sympathy.
I expect David to win again. He does not need legions of people since he is so well-known No one will beat the Senator...all he has to do is make sure his lawn signs are out there, knock on doors so his constituents know he is running again and he is back! We need a senior voice of reason as the next Council takes office.
The dark horse in this election is Ed Sleiman. Believe it or not, he almost knocked off Ken Lewenza the last time, losing by only a few hundred votes. If you want to make big money with the Vegas bookies bet on the 100-1 shot Sleiman. If he works as hard as he did the last time, he will give everyone a run for the money. You read it here first...if he plays his cards properly, he could be the #1 vote-getter in the Ward. I am not going to reveal his strategy but if he follows through on it, his election would be the big news of the evening.
WARD FIVE
Imagine Sean Connery coming to your door and asking for your vote on election day. Well Percy Hatfield is no 007 but he's the closest person to "star power" that we have given his long CBC City Hall reporter job. I have heard that his name recognition is very strong which helps a new candidate.
Jo-Anne Gignac is someone I do not understand at all. What she stands for has always mystified me. Smart lady, asks lots of good questions but I cannot get a good grasp what her political philosophy is. She's a Budgeteer so that should help her out and Henderson likes her so she should be fairly secure.
I must admit I know little about the other candidates but unless they already have good name recognition or make a big splash and quickly, I do not see them coming close.
So that's it..My views. There is still a week or so to go before nominations close and we shall see if there are any surprises.
Oh and as for mayoral race, I'll comment when someone announces they are running against Eddie. I mean...the salary is good...lots of free meals...ribbon cutting ceremonies...meeting important people...
posted by JoeBlog at 6:15 a.m.
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