Should Marra Run For Council

According to CKLW, Bill Marra is to make a decision about his future soon

I have heard recently from several people who know those close to Bill who claim that Bill is not going to run for Mayor and will instead run for Council in Ward 4. Some are even saying that Bill may run in Ward 5 (as Gord Henderson suggested some months ago).

And why not…according to everyone, Eddie is unbeatable. Notwithstanding that he has accomplished virtually nothing over the last three years, people still seem to like him. Or are prepared to give him another chance. Who has been a voice of criticism publicly during this period of time saying the Emperor is wearing no clothes? No one (except perhaps for the Blogmeister).

Why should Bill take the chance and lose when he can run in his old Ward, win back his seat and then four years from now mount a campaign that is sure to land him in the Mayor’s seat.

Is it all very, very simple and very, very straightforward—--Or not?

If I were to advise Bill, I would tell him, as I have said before, to run for Mayor or not run at all. Sure it is easy for me to say as a “backseat driver” or as a “Monday morning quarterback” what Bill should do. But don’t you really think that Bill will be painted with the epithet that he was “Chicken!” and afraid to run. Is that what we want from a future leader, afraid to act just because the going is tough! How could he deal with the Senior Levels on the border or the President of St. Clair on the Cleary or developers for the urban village if he had no guts to fight for us.

Sure but what if he loses, his political career is over. I have heard it said that Bill is not afraid of losing so that is not an issue. He is a big boy. He knows the risks. He also knows that there is more to life than just politics. Who knows, showing courage and running might even get him a nomination for a seat Provincially or Federally.

His life changed dramatically for the better after he lost the first time around so that is not a consideration at all for him. Who would hold it against him that he ran because he wanted this City to succeed, even if he lost? Frankly, with the anti-Eddie mood in the business community, I could see several companies offering him a job with his new higher profile!

The two fundamental risks in the reasoning for those who want Bill to run for Council now and run for Mayor later are:

1) Can Bill win a seat as a Councillor in Ward 4
2) Will Bill be a shoo-in for Mayor in four years?

BILL AS COUNCILLOR

Frankly, Bill has a better chance to be elected as Mayor than to win as a Councillor. How can that be? It seems to make no sense!

Actually it does.

David Cassivi will be re-elected as the top vote-getter in Ward 4 as he has been in the past. Marra was not able to beat the Senator before in the Ward race and no one will either this time. So the fight is really for the second seat

Ed Sleiman is running again in the Ward. He barely lost last time, by about 200 votes to Junior. (How many of the people who voted for Ken thought they were voting for his Dad, the CAW President. Now they know better). By announcing already, he clearly is gunning for that second seat and has a good chance at it because of name recognition.

In the normal election, I would say that Ken Lewenza Jr. has no chance of being re-elected. He has been up and down as a yo-yo as Councillor and seems to have lost his drive and/or interest in City politics. However, he will have a good chance to win since both the CAW and the NDP will be out in force for him. Rumour has it that Comartin will not run again federally and Junior wants his seat. In order to get it, he MUST be re-elected or his chances are gone.

If that were not enough, if Bill decides to run, it probably means that no one credible will run for Mayor against the incumbent. Do you really think that Eddie wants a strong Councillor to stand up to him for 4 years and rally the Councillors away from him. Eddie saw what happened to Hurst in his last year when the majority of Council united and opposed everything he wanted. Eddie does not want that to happen to him when he is polishing up his CV for his next career move.

So the E-machine will go all out to make sure that Bill loses, probably supporting Junior as well since Eddie can use that CAW help for some of the issues he will pretend to tackle in his second term. After all, they helped him on the border the first time didn’t they?

So it is NOT a slam-dunk for Bill and chances are good that he could lose.

As for Ward 5, he would have to face Gignac, Rick Limoges and perhaps even a famous media type. Even though he did well in that Ward last time in the mayor’s race, he would look really scared if he did that, never mind opportunistic, wouldn’t he?

BILL THE MAYORAL SHOO-IN IN FOUR YEARS

So let's assume Bill wins as Councillor, what next?

Imagine the dysfunctional Council over the next 4 years if Eddie is re-elected. Eddie would be a lame duck mayor since he would be in his last term as he has told everyone. He would be unable to control his Council (He barely can do it now without the Governor’s hubby and holding the border over their heads).

I would hate to see what this City would be like in four years. Why would anyone want to run then? It would be horrific trying to fix up the mess the City was in.

Forgetting that, where Bill would only have one opponent now if he ran for mayor, at least 5 Councillors will be positioning themselves over the next four years to take the plunge as well as some people who are not on Council now. Utter chaos; lots of competition.

Who is to say that Bill will be in a stronger position then? Everything he says and does will be looked at with suspicion by his colleagues who may be his opponent. He will be accused of grandstanding, trying to get votes for his new job. You can believe that they will not be helping him out too much.

The Star will “profile” him again and the amount of coverage he will get will be minimal and I would not be surprised to see it being negative so that he will not be able to challenge Eddie.

Again, not a sure thing at all. (Of course, there is the rumour whom Eddie favours and it is NOT Bill!)

EXTRA ADDED: THE THIRD OPTION—SITTING IT OUT

Don’t even go there...in four years, it will be Bill Who?

The election results for the 2003 election are set out above. From what I know, Bill's base of support was very low at the start, his campaign made a number of foolish mistakes that cost him dearly and he was running against the Goldenboy. Even then, it was hardly a landslide... Eddie only got 53% of the vote! Bill personally worked like crazy and by the end had a solid block of supporters whom I believe will still vote for him today. If you add them up and the disappointed Eddie backers, then Bill has his majority now.

I do not know what Bill will do but whatever it is, he better act and better act quickly. He has to be decisive no matter what he decides.

My own personal view from dealing with Windsorites for almost 4 years politically, is that one can capture the imagination of the public quickly. If Bill announces and if there is the big opposition to re-electing Eddie, as I think there is, you will see a huge and powerful movement flowing Bill's way almost immediately. Moreover, Eddie's funds to run an effective campaign will dry up since the disillusioned will see that there is an alternative whom they can support.

Windsor needs a credible alternative to Eddie Francis. Bill only has one choice in my opinion: to run for Mayor now, in 2006. Forget the ---Or not!