THE PLAN! THE PLAN!

Remember the TV show Fantasy Island and Tattoo's call of "The Plane, Boss, the Plane!" at the start of each show. Well Windsor has our tagline too from Eddie and Gridlock Sam.

Unfortunately for Windsorites, the border Plan is not as readily observable as the Plane was. Given the secrecy of border discussions, we can only figure out what is happening by making guesses based on putting together the facts that we know in a manner that seems logical and by filling in some blanks.

Assuming that there really is a Plan (and I have my doubts) I have attached a long note that I put together based on what I think could be happening. There are only a few people who can know if this is the Plan and I doubt that they will confirm or deny. If you read tea leaves on the side as a hobby, perhaps you have a better suggestion. If so, let me know.

If it isn’t clear after Minister Peterson’s remarks, then it never will be. The coup de grace respecting the border has been delivered. Finally a politician, and a Liberal Cabinet Minister too, has got it right. Finally a politician understands that pretending there is a crisis at the border is not helpful for Windsor or the economy of Canada. Finally a politician can say that "the border problems we've had in the past have been solved." Finally we might get a real solution.

Minister Peterson has confirmed what we all know, especially Mayor Eddie Francis who told us he monitors the border carefully. Truck backups on Huron Church Road became an urban legend after the 4 US Customs booths were opened by the Bridge Co. Now with the plans for 7 more booths to be opened, border capacity will increase by 50%. And this will be accomplished at a cost of only a few million dollars paid for by the Bridge Co. The new Bridge Co. proposal of 200 Customs booths to be completed by the end of 2007 may solve our crossing problem for the next 20-30 years as well, again paid for by the Bridge Co.

So why would anyone want to spend a billion dollars of taxpayer money to solve a problem that does not exist? Eddie could not be that foolish.

Poor Eddie….I believe that he did have a PLAN and it was a pretty smart one to boot. In my opinion, that Plan involved the Tunnel and Eddie’s desire to beat out the Bridge Company for control of the border. The rallying call for the Fast Track Schwartz solution was part of the Plan but mostly a diversion to keep the focus from Eddie’s real objective.

Eddie’s Plan probably started back in the Phase 1 MoU signed over a year ago. The key component was the improvements to the Tunnel Plaza. That part of the MoU made little sense since it had little to do with the truck traffic problems yet it was a major component. Sure there were the obvious reasons for that arrangement but there had to be more to it than that.

Schwartz’s Report also talked about restoring the Windsor Tunnel share of border crossing traffic and in fact, Schwartz was retained to do work for the Tunnel project. Unfortunately for Eddie, the Tunnel ventilation building unexpectedly needed major renovations that required a lot more money. This was on top of the City’s joint contribution to fund the Tunnel project. This may help explain why Eddie surprisingly allowed the Province recently to take over the handling of the Tunnel project since it had the resources, financial and staffing. Eddie needed the Tunnel project to be completed. He had to act quickly because the Bridge Co. raised the stakes.

In typical fashion, what was to be done had to be done in secret yet there was the need to get Council onside. Moreover, there was the need to offer "open and transparent" Government by pretending to allow for public input. Ergo, Agenda Item #5 on the July 25 Council agenda where we saw the strangely titled "Essex-Windsor Regional Transportation Master Plan" as the subject matter. That item proposed that the City:

• may fund new roadway capacity projects deemed necessary which would solve urgent problems being created by border traffic.
• It would also endorse the Fast Track Schwartz proposals that included the Tunnel.

The Resolution was cleverly worded and people focused on the Horseshoe Road not the Tunnel. The word "fund"’ was a strange one to use one since it suggests a "financing" type scheme. ("Fund" was the word used when Macquarie North American Infrastructure Inc acquired the Detroit and Canada Tunnel Corporation by the funding of $US53.5 million of senior debt.)

Interestingly the Motion did NOT mention "trucks" but any urgent border situation. And after it was deferred, Eddie talked about misinformation being spread around. He stated clearly that he was not going to spend money on "federal or provincial roads" thereby leaving open spending on "municipal roads" like the Horseshoe or the Tunnel roadway where passenger car traffic has declined dramatically.

So what was Eddie’s Plan that involved the Tunnel that he inadvertently gave away on July 25. He could:

• buy the rest of the Tunnel not owned by Windsor. Kwame needs money to solve his financial dilemma in Detroit if he wishes to be re-elected. And the cost to Windsor could be reasonable or even a "steal," in Kwame’s circumstances. However, the likely cost would be much more than Windsor could afford, several hundred million dollars at least.
• sell Windsor’s interest to generate funds for Windsor. But Eddie is against a sale, OR
• lease the Tunnel for 99 years alone or in conjunction with the Detroit Mayor as Eddie’s hero, Mayor Daley, did in Chicago with the Chicago Skyway.

Clearly the lease was the way to go since funds would become available to both Mayors for distribution for civic purposes. The logic, paraphrasing Mayor Daley’s words, was that, the Tunnel "had become a valuable asset, however, running a [Tunnel] is not a core function of city government." And Macquarie Bank who is involved in the Tunnel now and/or, but less likely, Borealis/OMERS (after Eddie’s recent shot at them and their DRTP role), might be part of it as the funding source given their connections with Windsor!

Windsor would receive perhaps a half a billion dollars for its Tunnel interest based on the Chicago Skyway amounts while still owning the Tunnel. There would be provisions respecting tolls and maintenance obligations to protect the public interest. A perfect P3 solution to make everyone a winner.

What would be done with the monies received---the Fast Track Schwartz solution would start to be implemented as a "municipal" project as claimed by Eddie after receiving David Estrin’s legal advice. Once Eddie had started the Schwartz project, he assumed that he could force the Senior Levels into going along since the preferred solution was Ojibway anyway. Getting towns and cities along Highway 401 to back Schwartz was a strategy that Eddie wanted to try as well to put pressure on.

Once the Senior Levels were involved, they would pay the bills starting with the balance of the $300 million BIF monies. He assumed that he would then use the lease funds for Windsor municipal purposes. A giant win for him and a Cabinet position to be sure in his future!

Thus Eddie would still "control" the Tunnel and would have a major impact on the new bridge crossing while finally killing DRTP. Schwartz’s proposal about a new public authority to control border crossings was very similar to the provisions of Bill C-44 that the Feds introduced to give them power over the border that they do not have now. Remarkable ESP!

In this manner, Eddie could squeeze the Bridge Co as his predecessor had tried and failed. The border control authority would allow the new bridge and the Tunnel to take money and traffic away from the Bridge Co. or force them to sell-out.

The Plan was brilliant and well-conceived. Unfortunately, Life does not always follow a Business Model created on paper, no matter how well-intentioned and no matter how clever the author. As Burns should have written: "the best laid Plans of Mice and Mayors…"

The idea was to move swiftly based on the authority granted by the Agenda Item #5 Council Resolution. Before anyone would have known what had happened, the Tunnel would have been leased and the City had the blank cheque to start the Schwartz proposals. There must be an urgent situation at the border that would allow these actions since:

• passenger car traffic was down significantly (why else would Nexus holders have to be subsidized as the Mayor proposed)
• Senator Kenny and the Premier told us of security/redundancy issues
• Schwartz told us that "the Ambassador Bridge was falling down"
• even the City of Woodstock down the road on Highway 401 was going to contribute money to the City’s cause.

A major assumption must have been that the Bridge Co would do nothing to stop what the Plan was to achieve. It would still make money and therefore not get too upset since traffic would double in the next 30 years keeping their toll revenues up. That assumption was destroyed when the Bi-national Engineers’ traffic projections were revised downwards. A new bridge could bankrupt both the Tunnel and the Bridge since there was not enough traffic to go around. The target clearly was the Bridge’s profits since presumably it made the big money with the trucks. No company, including the Bridge Co., could afford to sit idly by as its business was being attacked.

Eddie’s base of support also crumbled. Who is standing with the City now? Windsorites have been excluded from the border process by Council secrecy so they won’t help. The Province, Eddie’s supposed friend, has flipflopped and said that the Bi-national process must be respected. (The same wording as the Feds used back in the fall of 2004). Is it any wonder that Eddie will not participate in the Fed’s peer review of Schwartz? If the review is negative, as Brian Masse suggests it will be, then what would Eddie do if he agreed to go along? He needs to continue to snub the Senior Levels as he did before.

Most importantly, the Bridge Co came up with an innovative proposal for building 200 Customs booths and a common customs clearance for the Bridge and Tunnel car and truck traffic on the US side and paid for by the Bridge Co. That became the major threat to the Mayor’s Plan. It could ruin his Plan since the obvious risk was that few would use the Tunnel diminishing its revenues, preferring to use the Bridge’s customs booths! Who then would fund the lease?

Eddie also did not seem to appreciate the strong connections that the Bridge Co. has on the US side: eg The Mayor with their new Port of Detroit project and the Governor of Michigan in relation to their new Cobo Hall development, a vital State need. Never mind the fact that the US Government and MDOT are spending hundreds of millions on the Ambassador Gateway project. If a new crossing were built, hundreds of millions would be needed again on the US side.

Eddie claimed right away that the project would impact the Tunnel negatively (although one could argue that it would enhance the declining Tunnel business and increase border volumes at the same time). No wonder Eddie had to say their proposal was not "serious" and why he had to ignore their newspaper ads in which they wanted to partner with the City.

Now Minister of International Trade Jim Peterson dealt the final blow:

• "I will be telling my colleagues in Ottawa that the border problems we've had in the past have been solved and I'm delighted to hear it,"

He said he learned that the delays at the border have been dealt with. "This," Peterson said, "is music to my ears." …But he also wants to deliver the message to potential investors in Canada that the border problems are being addressed.

So where are we? In utter chaos! Worse off than ever.

I have advocated before that there is a solution that is possible for Windsor and that makes good sense as well:

1. Short-term solved already by the 4 new US booths (and 7 new ones along with the 9 booths for traffic into Canada)
2. Medium-term solved by the new Bridge Co. 200 booth proposal
3. Security and redundancy solved by reverse customs
4. Long-term solved by a new Bridge at Ojibway. Develop plans for that corridor and get ready to build the bridge if and when necessary.

The Detroit Free Press came up with a similar proposal in an Editorial. What they wrote is obvious, realistic and affordable. It stated: "the Ambassador Bridge's Border Solution is the best plan to keep international commerce and traffic flowing, and to delay the need for building a costly second crossing. "

It is time now for Windsor Council to take charge and to take back control of the border file as it did before and to work with the only party that knows how to deal effectively with the border. The first step should be to talk to them.